A Spatial Analysis of Household Location Decisions in Maine

In recent years, the causes and consequences of land use change have emerged as significant policy issues. Accordingly, it is not surprising to witness the emergence of policies designed to manipulate both the drivers and consequences of land use change. “Smart growth” policies, which favor clustered development in established growth areas, are a notable example of such policies. Although smart growth policies are increasingly gaining in stature, there is limited empirical assessment of their feasibility and desirability. Critics of smart growth policies suggest that these policies may “require telling people that they may not live as they prefer to live, even if they can afford it (Hayward, 2002)." In this paper, the feasibility of adopting smart growth policies in Maine is assessed using novel data collected by the Maine State Planning Office. A random utility modeling framework is employed to examine household location decisions and identify the relative influence of environmental, economic, and social factors. This modeling framework enables us to consider the impact of alternative growth management policies on housing location decisions as well as to examine the influence of changes in individual and community characteristics. GIS data and modeling tools are employed to expand the consideration of the spatial aspects of location decisions. The final intended contribution of this research is to examine the consequences of spatial dependence in a random utility modeling framework.